Finland’s foreign minister hints that Russia may have been involved in last week’s Quran-burning protest that threatens to derail Sweden’s accession to NATO: "This is unforgivable,” Haavisto says.

[u/green_flash]

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2023/01/28/Finland-hints-at-Russia-s-involvement-in-Quran-burning-protest-in-Sweden

[u/chilu0222]

So before the Qur'an burning last week, Turkey was ready to support Sweden to enter NATO?

[u/sentientrubberduck → u/chilu0222]

You hit the nail on it's head. After the turkish election is done with we can see their real 'issues'. If the US and rest of NATO is completely powerless in front of Turkey then it severely hampers their credibility and raises questions about their 'unity'. It's in the west's interest for that to not happen. That and the fact that Finland & Sweden joining helps secure the baltics for basically free.

[u/wastingvaluelesstime → u/sentientrubberduck]

Turkey needs things from the west and those will start to be on hold if it is going to try to block this forever rather than making a deal

[u/Mad_Bussy → u/wastingvaluelesstime]

Why do think it is blocking. It wants to stabilize the economy and that can't be done without making a deal with USA.

[u/Notrasdeprecationes → u/[deleted]]

Think of the renewable energy source that’d be lost though; the power derived from Atatürk spinning in his grave would need to be replaced.

[u/Valtremors → u/Notrasdeprecationes]

I hate this has become one of my favorite recurring jokes here.

Edit: recurring. Not fecurring.

[u/prometheus3333 → u/Valtremors]

autocorrect ftw fecurring is a cool portmanteau of fecal and recurring meaning an ongoing shit show or shit storm.

[u/Valtremors → u/prometheus3333]

I'm just going to hand my ownership of the word unto you.

Use it wisely.

[u/anonymoustobesocial → u/Valtremors]

I mean, they've got Prometheus in their username so we pretty much know what they'll do with it

[u/slicerprime → u/prometheus3333]

A new word has been added to my personal lexicon.

[u/smeegsh → u/slicerprime]

Here here!

[u/EvilWarBW → u/Valtremors]

You should get that checked out

[u/Thekleeto → u/Notrasdeprecationes]

Not gonna lie that gave me a good chuckle

[u/nychuman → u/[deleted]]

Rural voters will doom the west. Rural voters will doom Turkey. Welcome to the new age my friend.

[u/Dads101 → u/nychuman]

You both are arguing City vs. Rural and guess what - you’re both wrong. And you’re both right!

1% of the polulation factually owns 95% of the wealth on this planet. Both sides getting played and you fall right into it.

The oligarchs and billionaire owners who are hiding from us are the problem. Stop pointing the finger at each other/sideways and start pointing up

Whole planet has a systematic wealth distribution problem and the 80%+ of the US population is busy being assholes to one another because that’s how we designed this system.

Neither of you is right or wrong. We need to hold politicans and the 1% accountable. And no I’m not talking about John who started a business and makes 500k a year. Well deserved John.

I’m talking about the actual 1% that we don’t see - but are absolutely controlling the media, the news, the stock market, everything

Please. You guys are not so different from each other - I promise.

Learn to discuss and see each others view points and you’ll find a lot of our problems are similar. We just want to help our loved ones and live a good life. Your common man is not the problem here - it’s the ultra wealthy.

Sending love to both of you

[u/ChristianEconOrg → u/Dads101]

According to the data, urban voters are right. Progressive, socialistic democracies have already proven what works best, with the world’s highest living standards at every level. The policies and characteristics rural voters promote match those of third world areas.

[u/APintOfFreshAir → u/ChristianEconOrg]

The only issue with your analysis is that it still depends on the subsidized work by the blood and sweat of the poor across the world, and the resources of their lands.

I’m not saying we go full right wing at all, because it’s pretty clear many of those isolate us from the bigger world. But I’m also saying that if we pretend that the rest of the world is on our side, we are in for a surprise.

Wealth redistribution isn’t something that’s only going to have to happen in the west, it’s going to have to go to the rest of the world at some point.

But, I do think that the massive systemic inefficiencies, corruption, and loop holes in the west are the first step, and that their socialization (with hearty oversight by citizens of ALL backgrounds), is the first step, since most of the west fundamentally holds the power and influence.

[u/chth → u/APintOfFreshAir]

Your first sentence is very important and not brought up enough. Our standard of living is insane and it's built on the backs of poor people across the world.

Realistically we would have to massively drop our standard of living to immediately make the worlds standard of living equal at this exact moment. Obviously no one wants to do that so the burden if you care to take it is on us to invent some sort of resource extraction and production model that is entirely automated so that we can usher in global post scarcity. If that isn't achieved people will never be equal because someone will have to be the person working in the hole for someone else.

[u/Killfile → u/Dads101]

No, the social issues matter too. I'm not saying that class issues aren't important, but the fact of the matter is that if you're not a white, straight male in the United States, rural voters are actively looking to make your life measurably shorter.

And that is important.

Yes, I want us to deal with wealth inequality TOO and maybe doing that gets you an end to the just-this-side-of-genocidal politics the right uses for "wedge issues" but the fact remains that this is not a "both sides" problem.

White people don't face the prospect of horrific violence from law enforcement if Black, urban populations get their way.

Cis people don't face the criminalization of their medical care and forced conversion to a gender identity they don't identify with if LGBTQ people get their way.

Men don't face a loss of bodily autonomy and access to life saving medical care if women get their way.

The list goes on and on and on. The urban/rural divide in the United States is between people who want HORRIBLE things to happen to others and those who.... don't.

Yes, they have more in common, economically, than they realize but we can't ignore the crushing human cost of these things. They matter. The lives being destroyed for political gain matter. And maybe the people voting to destroy those lives are being manipulated.... but they are still voting

[u/hehehuh → u/Killfile]

I think the point gp is making is that the underlying cause of the rural right wing thinking is fear mongering by media corporations owned and used by rich dudes. I think this is a bit of an oversimplification but there's something to it.

[u/nychuman → u/Dads101]

Great point and agreed.

Allow me to embellish though. Personally, I’m a political moderate, but it’s factual that rural voters have lead western countries down the path of nationalistic/protectionist populism which will be their downfall.

There are those on the extreme left with equally destructive fantasies which are also contributing towards society’s crumbling although in a more diffuse and less organized form (postmodernism basically, and also why they are less of a practical threat).

Yes the 1% hoarding wealth and extreme inequality is probably the largest issue, but it’s not mutually exclusive with the validity of criticizing political extremism and tribalism. These trends have existed since the inception of humanity.

[u/Masterbajurf → u/nychuman]

You see though how it creates an absolutely impossible problem. The wealthy instigate infighting. One group will invariably be led astray by said ultra wealthy and hamper a constructive future. But still the solution is to work together and realize our intrinsic similarities. But then, even STILL, the group that is led astray is seen by the more mature groups as unforgivable, insoluble.

"Seek union with an evil that professes it's love of evil?"

Yes, that is the solution. But it can't happen between two complete disparate political identities. Which is what we have in the U.S.

The future will look back on us and know that this was a properly tied knot. Hands behind our back and all.

[u/PrinceoR- → u/nychuman]

Counter argument, modern western democracies have a long history and very well established tendency to under invest in rural communities (not saying there aren't a lot of good economic reasons for this). But it's easy to see why rural communities feel like social democratic policies don't work in their favour (which is also not entirely true). They vote against progressive policies because they benefit them less than they benefit people in urban centres.

[u/NearHorse → u/PrinceoR-]

Having grown up in a city and then lived/still live on a rural area, the locals vote against the politicians who promote programs that do benefit the rural community. They take advantage of the programs to build a new state of the art fire station (for a town of 700) with money from the Obama administration's recovery plan. They argue that the money under Obama came from a federal grant, not tax dollars. When you ask them where the grant money comes from they either say nothing or say something like "the grant place."

We also got a brand new city hall and community center during Obama admin too.

There's plenty of investment in these places (other small towns around here) but the community refuses to admit it's coming from the govt.

[u/herecomesthemaybes → u/PrinceoR-]

Counter counter argument, rural communities don't get as much investment precisely because they vote in officials who don't want "big government." It's hard to get programs passed by people who think the programs shouldn't exist in the first place. Also, when there are proposed investments that might bring more economic activity and more people into a rural area, residents often push back that they don't want more people. They don't want "city" problems, they want their area to remain rural. It's a catch 22; I don't know how you successfully get government investment into rural areas when faced with so much opposition from the people it's meant to benefit.

[u/cujukenmari → u/PrinceoR-]

Maybe if they voted progressively on a local level they would see more of the benefits? Hard to complain about progressivism when your locale is run by conservatives.

[u/MAXSuicide → u/nychuman]

tale as old as time. Rural conservatives vs city-dwelling progressives (relatively)

You can see the influence of this eternal battle go back all the way to Antiquity in countless events.

[u/squarebodynewb → u/[deleted]]

The other question is "Did the shit-stain get voted in rightfully by the public, OR was it another manipulation by the Rooskies?" Because thats where my head lands. That would benefit russia the most, having an oppositional figurehead in a place of power to manipulate the world stage from another country.

[u/wastingvaluelesstime → u/Mad_Bussy]

It'll be hard to stabilize the economy without also having professional management of their central bank, but yeah, they may have some important asks on the economic dimension. Which is fine, but doesn't work unless they at some point say 'yes' to sweden

[u/calmdownmyguy → u/Mad_Bussy]

It could be done if they raised interest rates.

[u/Worldly_Appeal4126 → u/calmdownmyguy]

Raising interest rates is part of the problem, but it’s this whole Islamic economics thing that is giving them problems. Commentor above in the thread was right when they said turkey needs to go back to being the secular country that Ataturk gave them.

[u/Bay1Bri → u/calmdownmyguy]

"What's that? You think we should cut the rates again? Great idea!"

-turkey

[u/cosmotabis → u/wastingvaluelesstime]

Majority of Turkish food comes from Russia. Remember few years ago when the west convinced Erdogan to shoot down the Russian plane crossing over from Syria. Shortly after Erdogan was visiting Russia bringing apologies after Russia stopped exporting.

Russia, has been one of the most important trade partners of Türkiye. Trade volume between two states has reached 26,309 billion USD in 2019, with Türkiye's 3,854 billion USD worth of exports and 22,454 billion USD imports.

[u/wastingvaluelesstime → u/cosmotabis]

The west is pretty serious about Sweden and Finland joining. The reality is, wheat is a global commodity and if russia is angered Türkiye will not go without wheat. Russia is 3% of the global economy while NATO allies are 40-50%, and simply have more leverage.

[u/BigFish8 → u/sentientrubberduck]

Is turkey the country that had government officials in the USA during the trump presidency where they beat people up and nothing happened?

[u/kylehatesyou → u/BigFish8]

That's them. I just remember it being protestors, but apparently they fought with Secret Service too.

[u/wulfhund70 → u/BigFish8]

Those were his bodyguard detail if I remember right.... they had immunity as part of his visit, personally I would have then blocked from entry going forward

[u/ksam3 → u/BigFish8]

While Trump was meeting with Turkish officials. Not one peep from Trump. Not one. Turkish thugs leave embassy grounds and attack peaceful protesters exercising their US rights in the US, and not one single whimper about "muh rights" from Trump World. I guess Trump World only supports violent breaking & entering as "legitimate political discourse" so it didn't care about this attack by a foreign country's official representatives on US soil?

[u/AddictedToOxygen → u/ksam3]

In my experience, they only seem to care about what energetic anti-mainstream edgelord pundits tell them to care about. They prefer to not have to parse logic themselves.

[u/filipv → u/sentientrubberduck]

Turkey may be a shitty ally, but it'd be a much worse enemy. What if, after being expelled from NATO, Turkey turns into a new Putin-friendly Iran-like country, with theocracy and everything?

[u/matholio → u/filipv]

There is nothing in the NATO agreement that provides a way to expell a member.

[u/asethskyr → u/matholio]

The Vienna Convention provides all treaties with a means to expel a member. It's common sense, since every other member can leave the existing Treaty and create a new identical version without the offending nation party to it.

[u/OKImHere → u/matholio]

There doesn't have to be. You expel a member by telling them they're expelled. That's all it takes. They can't appeal it.

[u/medievalvelocipede → u/filipv]

Doesn't sound much different to be honest.

[u/GroggyGrognard → u/sentientrubberduck]

The better way to view Turkey's positioning in NATO affairs is to regard it not necessarily as a security partner, but as a horse trader way too eager to haggle for a better deal on their side when something important is on the line.

[u/green_flash → u/chilu0222]

It was always going to be delayed until shortly before or after the Turkish elections because Erdogan wants to get the maximum out of it when it comes to domestic clout, but they did sign an agreement on what Sweden would need to do and they did follow through.

Türkiye, Finland, and Sweden sign agreement paving the way for Finnish and Swedish NATO membership

Sweden has fulfilled its obligations to Turkey under a trilateral agreement signed last year to pave the way for membership in NATO, Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom said

The Russian-financed Quran burning gave Erdogan a perfect opportunity to further escalate and take the deal off the table indefinitely.

[u/CrystalSplice → u/green_flash]

I don't have an article link for it handy, but I thought I heard the US is putting the screws to Turkey by refusing to ship them an already agreed upon amount of F-16 fighter jets unless they capitulate. Seems like pretty good leverage.

[u/LeonMinztee → u/chilu0222]

Not really Turkey/Erdogan wanted Sweden to extradite some Journalists and Kurds he Claims to be "Terrorists" to gain Turkeys support. The purpose behind that is to Appeal to the Turkish Public. Sweden did Not follow their demand .

[u/WTFnoAvailableNames → u/chilu0222]

Of course not. This narrative that puts the blame on Paludan and Chang Frick is really bad. Erdogan is the only one standing in the way.

[u/jayperr → u/chilu0222]

As a Swede: Hahahahaha. No.

[u/oholandesvoador → u/chilu0222]

Can someone ELI5 me on what relevance has Sweden joining NATO to Turkey, and why should it matter to Turkey?

[u/[deleted] → u/oholandesvoador]

NATO admission is by unanimous vote.

So any single holdout can delay or halt a vote.

By delaying, they can try to negotiate for better resources for themselves.

This is particularly important when considering that Turkey has an election coming up, and Turkey's current leader is a strongman who views NATO as a transactional alliance.

Therefore, delaying the vote both serves as a posture as trying to negotiate for Turkey's benefit/security externally, and to boost their own image as a strong leader internally.

[u/Upbeat_Web_4461 → u/oholandesvoador]

when Sweden and Finland joins NATO. Yes I did say when, not if. When they join, the Baltic Sea will become a NATO lake. By becoming a NATO lake, the Baltic countries will not be as vulnerable to being separated, if Russia decides to attack. It will also block Russia’s main ice free port, if push comes to shove. It will change the power dynamics of NATO going from the Turks Straight to the Baltic region. Erogram knows that

[u/flukshun]

And it's unacceptable that's it's so easy to derail NATO accession based on stupid antics. This is not acceptable or tenable

[u/OneTime_AtBandCamp → u/flukshun]

Turkey didn't want to let them in. The Quran incident was just a pretext. They would have found another reason to say no.

[u/green_flash → u/OneTime_AtBandCamp]

Turkey will let them in eventually when people have forgotten about it again. It's all about the Turkish elections in May this year.

[u/NeilDeCrash → u/green_flash]

I have growing feeling that this has more than meets the eye.

Nord stream gets blown up. Russia is suddenly about to build the biggest gas hub in Europe to Turkey. Turkey blocks Sweden/Finland.

"Speaking at the Russian Energy Week forum, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed creating the largest gas hub in Europe in Turkey and redirecting the volume of gas, the transit of which is no longer possible through the Nord Stream, to this hub."

[u/redwashing → u/NeilDeCrash]

It's a bit more complicated than that. It is very difficult for Turkey to take any stance in this war with its economy as weak as it is. There are some advantages like being the middle man in selling "definitely not Russian I promise" gas to Europe, but there are many other factors too. It can't take a stance, can't take a pro-Russia stance either. It has to somehow make both sides happy.

Gas and oil is ofc and important part of the equation. Another one is agricultural trade, both imports and exports, Russia is #1 trade partner of Turkey in that. Turkey buys grains and sells vegatables/fruits/processed food. And #2 partner in agricultural trade for Turkey? That's Ukraine. In tourism Russia is #1 source of tourists, Ukraine is #3. Construction sector, both important partners. Defense industry, both very important. Turkey can't say fuck off to either of them so it has to play this balance game, with a third grade diplomat in Erdoğan no less. Can't say fuck off to Sweden and Finland, but can't say yes either. Has to stall somehow. This quran burning stuff is the perfect excuse, Erdoğan could kiss the guy who staged it.

[u/ElegantBiscuit → u/redwashing]

Agreed. Turkey is a on a bit of a precipice economically and Erdogan is on a similar political precipice. Any move away from Russia in which Russia retaliates economically might hurt Russia, but it'll hurt Turkey way more. That means Turkey would have to turn towards the EU instead of trying to play this balancing act which has allowed it to stay relatively geopolitically independent. And the European financial aid to plug the gaps of a Russian economic war would certainly come with strings attached which will come at the personal detriment to Erdogan and his power.

[u/ChainChompskey → u/redwashing]

While everything you said is pretty much true, it's worth noting that Turkey put itself in this position. It's been playing both sides for decades, which has given it an outsized impact on geopolitical events given the relative size of their economy. Now it finds itself in an uncomfortable position where both its parents are fighting, and the one with the money is winning.

[u/redwashing → u/ChainChompskey]

It's hard to pretty much neighbor Russia and not trade with it a lot but yeah, the Georgia war should've been taken as a strong sign for diversification of trade. I expected this whole thing to blow in Turkey's face sooner tbh but stuff like selling Ukraine UAVs and solving the grain shipment crisis is letting Turkey stay in limbo.

Now Sweden just allowed this to continue longer. "We're not telling you no Sweden, just asking you to resolve the toughest intellectual issue of the 21st century in the Western world in balancing hate speech adn free speech, then you can join". If they manage to do that, Turkey should ask them to bring peace to the Middle East lol.

[u/Daemonic_One → u/redwashing]

The point of every comment above you is that Sweden didn't allow shit. This is all Erdogan all the time. He could ignore the actions of a bunch of foreign dipshits, but instead he's beating the Theocratic Nationalist drum for May. Watch for this all to be resolved the moment the election is over and he has extorted sufficient concessions from the US and Europe.

Edit: letter

[u/Professional-Skin-75 → u/Daemonic_One]

Extra concessions is 100% the reason

[u/robeph → u/ChainChompskey]

Байрактар. Enough said. There was praise for Turkey's assistance to Ukraine with its drones. This was more than just playing both sides. Those drones did well in Ukriane against Russia.

[u/ChainChompskey → u/robeph]

Providing drones, then throwing every wrench they can possibly find into the works to block Finland & Sweden from joining NATO is absolutely playing both sides.

[u/orojinn → u/green_flash]

Staged Election you mean where Erodogan wins by 117%... Let's not fool ourselves turkey is a dictatorship and frankly it should be kicked the fuck out of NATO.

[u/CzusAguster → u/orojinn]

Turkey is only part of NATO because of its strategic importance. If they joined with Russia, that would be very bad for the west.

[u/iCANNcu → u/CzusAguster]

And very bad for Turkey which Erdogan knows.

[u/OldMcFart → u/iCANNcu]

But probably good for Erdogan's pockets. Like any authoritarian leader, I don't think he cares about his country one bit.

[u/maxToTheJ → u/OldMcFart]

His pockets are already lined. He doesn’t need to be involved in Russian kleptocracy where he might end up dying from falling from a ground story window

[u/OldMcFart → u/maxToTheJ]

People like him don't think that way. They always want more, and more, and more. Look at Putin. Why would he not just enjoy life as a ultra-wealthy dictator, instead of risking it with a war with Ukraine and by extension the west? Because people like them always think they can get more without going too far.

[u/iCANNcu → u/OldMcFart]

I doubt it. Turkey still very dependant On US military aid. Erdogan's power would be threatened without support from The West.

[u/OldMcFart → u/iCANNcu]

Certainly, hence his balancing the knife's edge, lining his pockets every which way he can manage.

[u/dla3253 → u/OldMcFart]

Yeah, Erdogan is only out for himself and knows that Turkey's, and thus his, significance on the international stage right now is due to its strategic location in the East-West conflict. Playing both sides against each other is in his interests.

[u/EnragedZeus05 → u/iCANNcu]

Yeah. I read some months ago a number of countries canceled contracts for Russian weapons and went to Germany/France/America/any where else. I don’t think anyone wants Russian weapons now.

[u/marco_sikkens → u/OldMcFart]

Yeah except the fact that Poetin only wants puppets he can control leading friendly countries. Erdogan would probably 'fall' out of a window at some point.

[u/OldMcFart → u/marco_sikkens]

Yeah, except never underestimate someone old in a game where people die young. Erdogan's been around for a while, he's purged the ranks several times. Assad as well for comparison. Putin's power isn't endless. Not even close as recent events have shown with undeniable clarity. At this time, Erdogan sits safely in Isengard, but does his master's bidding whether he wants to or not.

[u/TheSkyPirate → u/iCANNcu]

I mostly agree, but Turkey is pretty strong at this point. If the war in Ukraine ended today the theoretical strength of Turkish forces probably exceeds that of Russian forces.

[u/MediocreContent → u/iCANNcu]

Man, I remember when I was in the military and that whole coup thing occurred. Forgot which year, but I remember our nukes there were a hot button issue when it was happening.

[u/BocciaChoc → u/CzusAguster]

People know so little of the history of Russia and Turkey where they suggest they would team up.

[u/kaiser41 → u/CzusAguster]

It's a military alliance, not a social club. Everyone is in it for strategic importance, or at least that's how it should be. It's not in NATO members' interests to let in countries that will be a military liability.

Not to say that Sweden and Finland wouldn't pull their weight (and being able to base stuff in their country is probably good enough even if they didn't have militaries), but this "Turkey is only in it because of their big army and strategically vital geographic features" refrain isn't the dunk on Turkey that people think it is.

[u/sailing_by_the_lee → u/CzusAguster]

Turkey allying with Russia would be very bad for Turkey. Russia is a fading power, the losing side. There is zero chance that Turkey would ally with Russia. Most of Turkey's military equipment is of American or European origin, and it would be a disaster for them if they lost access to spare parts and upgrades, not to mention western intelligence and the NATO nuclear umbrella. Turkey has a long, as well as recent, history of military coups (4 times since 1960, and an attempt as recently as 2016). There is no chance that Turkey's military would tolerate Erdogan fucking up relations with the West so badly as to put Turkey's national security at risk. Especially not because of some provocation over the Quran.

Regardless, there is no rush to admit Sweden and Finland to NATO. The US and EU have already extended military protection to them in the interim.

[u/Auto_Pronto → u/CzusAguster]

Russia isn't important anymore. Half the power they used to be

[u/Veltan → u/Auto_Pronto]

Much less than half.

[u/orojinn → u/CzusAguster]

The same Russia that's losing the battle to Ukraine with its shitty military hardware? The Turkish generals know they would not stand a chance against NATO itself because they already know the power of NATO. For all we know triggering NATO into removing Turkey might actually get the General's attention and stop supporting Erdogan

[u/Seanspeed → u/orojinn]

Turkey is a pretty big military power. And it's not just military, it's also their geopolitical importance. Having them allied with Russia would be pretty bad. Ukraine could be completely blocked from utilizing their Black Sea ports, for instance.

[u/DsutetcipE → u/Seanspeed]

People don’t realize how big the Turkish army is, and how strategically significant Istanbul is. There is a reason the Romans build that city, and later became the capital of the Eastern Roman Empire.

[u/traversecity → u/DsutetcipE]

7th BCE, Greeks built Byzantine, later in around 300 CE, the Roman Constantine arrived, Constantinople.

Such a great place for a city and fortress then and now.

[u/DsutetcipE → u/traversecity]

Yes, you are right, Constantine recognized the strategic value and invested in it, thanks for the correction!

[u/BeignetsByMitch → u/DsutetcipE]

So you're telling me Istanbul was Constantinople? Now it's Istanbul, not Constantinople?

[u/Beleg63 → u/CzusAguster]

That would not be as impactful as it was in past.

[u/rgpc64 → u/CzusAguster]

Their stategic location on the black sea is far less critical than it once was.

[u/BocciaChoc → u/rgpc64]

More so once this war is over, Ukraine has wonderful access to the Blacksea.

[u/ezrs158 → u/BocciaChoc]

I don't think the Black Sea itself is the strategic value. It's the straits connecting the Black Sea to the Mediterranean which are critical, and both Russia and Ukraine depend on it.

[u/musingmarkhor → u/orojinn]

Yeah, I don't think you've seen the results of a single Turkish election. Erdogan's party has always won somewhere between 40% to 50% of votes in general elections whenever they were in power. He may even struggle pretty hard in the upcoming elections, hence why he's trying really hard to show off a sense of having power. While Erdogan does have an autocratic-like presidency, let's not be completely oblivious to reality. The leaders of main opposition parties in Turkey, many who are secularist, also condemned what happened in Sweden. Moreover, there is a shared sentiment that Sweden needs to do something about what they see as PKK elements in their country.

[u/zoomercide → u/musingmarkhor]

Though they’re nowhere near as fraudulent as OP claims, it would be equally “oblivious to reality” to not at least question the integrity of Turkish elections, particularly the 2017 and 2018 elections: According to one methodologically rigorous study,

…the magnitude of … statistical aberrations might have been just large enough to change the outcome of the referendum from ‘No’ to ‘Yes’ for the 2017 constitutional referendum. These findings are corroborated by similar results in the 2018 presidential and parliamentary elections for voter rigging and ballot stuffing…

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6173410/pdf/pone.0204975.pdf

Regardless of their procedural integrity, it’s indisputable that Erdogan has restricted the fundamental freedoms of speech, press, and assembly on which fair elections—really, democracy itself—are predicated. Unsurprisingly, those are the same fundamental freedoms that Sweden would have to suspend in order to meet all of Erdogan’s demands. And if, like you implied, Turkish people of all political stripes truly share that sentiment, then it further underscores Turkey’s incompatibility with NATO, whose members are

determined to safeguard the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their peoples, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law

and are expected to “[strengthen] their free institutions” and “[bring] about a better understanding of the principles upon which these institutions are founded.”

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_17120.htm

[u/SwedishTiger → u/orojinn]

You are aware Erdogan got 52% in the 2018 elections, right?

[u/Withabaseballbattt → u/orojinn]

Good thing you aren’t in charge lmfao

[u/IdreamofFiji → u/orojinn]

Turkey sucks but they are very important to NATO and have fulfilled all their commitments, can't say that about everybody.

[u/daBriguy → u/orojinn]

This is such a bad take. First off, whether we like it or not Turkey is an essential strategic ally in an incredibly important geographical region. Secondly, Turkey is one of the only links between the west and the Islamic countries. We can’t afford to lose them as an ally despite these middle school antics

[u/[deleted] → u/orojinn]

[removed] — view removed comment

[u/Puzzleheaded_Try9958 → u/orojinn]

Ffs, I hate Erdogan. I can't wait to see him lose but the elections are not staged. I don't understand how you guys can be so confidant in things you have no idea about. Him winning the elections is not a surprise because he has a really strong following. Even people who are not happy with the current state of the country are supporting him blaming others. It is mind boggling but unfortunately it is what it is. And opposition being useless doesn't help.

[u/sw04ca → u/orojinn]

Why would you kick Turkey for the sake of Sweden and Finland, when Turkey is so much more important than they are, from a strategic point of view? Closing off the Black Sea is a pretty big deal, and the US bases in Turkey are no joke either.

[u/roofuskit → u/green_flash]

And Turkey is going to get something for their vote. That's how they roll.

[u/Killersavage → u/green_flash]

Who is even running against Erdogan? Or who is the front runner? I feel like the fact no one mentions this person means Erdogan probably doesn’t have much to worry about.

[u/Mysteryman64 → u/Killersavage]

Guy named Ekrem Imamoglu seems to be the popular opposition candidate, although I don't know if he's announced his intention to run yet. Most of the polling I've seen actually shows him beating Erdogan in the second round after all candidates would fail to get majority in the first and it goes to run off.

Erdogan is pushing real hard to get him disqualified from being able to run, hopefully disqualifying him at the very last second so the opposition can't field another candidate in time.

[u/MentLDistortion → u/Killersavage]

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Leader of CHP. Not announced officially but it's definitely him. The most mentioned candidates are Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Meral Aksener (İYİ Parti Leader, nationalist centre-right), Ekrem İmamoğlu (CHP Istanbul Mayor) and Mansur Yavas (CHP Ankara Mayor, Nationalist). İYİ Parti and CHP are in an alliance (there are 4 other parties as well but the big deal is CHP and İYİ Parti)

Most polls show that both AKP and the opposition can't win without the HDP votes (mostly Kurds). Kurds will mostly vote for the opposition. HDP announced several times that they will support whoever is against Erdogan in the second tour. They did mention one time that if the candidate who runs against Erdogan is a nationalist they won't vote. So Mansur Yavas and Meral Aksener seems to be out of the equation. Ekrem İmamoglu got a political ban and conviction that would block his candidacy. However the proceedings will still take a while. It's not res judicata yet but still opposition will most likely not risk it. So that pretty much leaves us with Kilicdaroglu.

Many people from opposition are against Kilicdaroglu being the candidate though. It seems like most of the people want Ekrem Imamoglu or Mansur Yavas.

[u/green_flash → u/Killersavage]

The opposition alliance has not agreed on a candidate yet. It will likely be one of Imamoglu, Yavas, Aksener, Kilicdaroglu.

[u/MrGaffe → u/OneTime_AtBandCamp]

Pretty much, their leader just wants to keep his seat of power so he’s using this as a pretext to get votes

[u/JesusWuta40oz → u/OneTime_AtBandCamp]

Turkey doesn't care. This is a bargaining chip for something for the EU or the US. Turkey is like China, they play all sides.

[u/BloodlustyGummybear → u/flukshun]

It was one person...

I assumed it was a large, organized book burning. It was one nut job.

[u/Judospark → u/BloodlustyGummybear]

Yeah this goofball burned the same book in a couple of midsize Swedish cities last spring, causing large scale riots.

[u/sammyhere → u/Judospark]

This guy has been doing it FOR YEARS in denmark, but his political party failed and people lost interest, which is why he moved to sweden.

He's a major piece of shit and did nazi dogwhistles/memes during live-debates.

[u/ChrisTchaik → u/flukshun]

Turkey is horrible, but I see what Finland is doing here: a PR off-ramp. Erdogan gets to throw in an excuse to his Islamist supporters, in case his pre-election trick got too far.

[u/Ftpini → u/flukshun]

It’s the same thing that undoes protests in the us. They insert a few “bad actors” who cause violence and use that violence to delegitimization the entire movement. It is very effective.

[u/-Erro- → u/flukshun]

Why does Turkey have all this control?

[u/-Erro- → u/[deleted]]

I feel like without the power to overrule, the more countries that join the greater the chances of something like this happenning again.

Does the rest of NATO have any say in this? Can they do anything about it or are they just at the mercy of a powertripping thanksgiving dinner?

[u/Techercizer → u/-Erro-]

Yes, everyone else in NATO has the ability to block a new member. They all have a say; Turkey is just the only one who is speaking up.

Unanimous agreement in a defense pact is kind of important because you are signing up to go to war and have your people die for another country.

[u/-Erro- → u/Techercizer]

That is a good point.

[u/Scereye → u/-Erro-]

I feel like without the power to overrule, the more countries that join the greater the chances of something like this happenning again.

That's by design, though.

It's like a saying we have at work "if everything is important, nothing is important". In this case you have the situation that, if everyone is in the group, no-one is in the group. So you have to make it hard to grow at a certain point. And only with EXTREMELY positive impact it will work.

Now, at some point other members will remember turkeys actions when it comes to different negotiations... the question is... will Turkey know when they have to stop.

[u/kroxigor01 → u/-Erro-]

You can't force a country to be military ally of someone they don't want to be.

I wonder if the rest of NATO minus Turkey could write up a be deal with Sweden and Finland in. Identical to the rest of the NATO treaty.

Basically two overlapping alliances. Kinda like how the USA has other alliances outside NATO with Japan, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, and I'm sure many more.

[u/[deleted] → u/flukshun]

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[u/flukshun → u/[deleted]]

Agreed. I'm referring specifically to how susceptible NATO's critical functions are to outside sabotage due to their brittle accession procedures.

[u/urbanprovocation → u/flukshun]

"Open door policy." My ass.

[u/Green-Event813 → u/flukshun]

Is this the kinda shit that’s been holding our world and our way of life together?

Christ I want off this fucking ride, the people running the planet are all certifiably stupid individuals.

[u/Corgi_Koala → u/flukshun]

Turkey's geopolitical position makes them extremely important and unfortunately gifts them a disproportionate amount of power within the alliance. It sucks but there's a pragmatic side to keeping them happy. If they left the alliance and became friendly or allied with Russia, it would be a massive blow to the stability of the region.

[u/autotldr]

This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 77%. (I'm a bot)

---

Finland's foreign minister hinted that Russia may have been involved in last week's Quran-burning protest that threatens to derail Sweden's accession to NATO. Rasmus Paludan, a far-right activist with dual Danish and Swedish citizenship, burned Islam's holy book in central Stockholm, leading Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to rule out supporting Sweden's entry into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

"There are forces both within Sweden and outside who wish to hinder Sweden's membership in NATO," Kristersson said.

Egypt's al-Azhar calls for boycotts over Quran burning in Sweden.

---

Extended Summary | FAQ | Feedback | Top keywords: Sweden^#1 Finland^#2 NATO^#3 Russia^#4 countries^#5

[u/DonManuel]

I'm not sure if the primary motive wasn't Erdoğan's reelection.

[u/DrIGGI → u/DonManuel]

That's the geopolitical game that all nations play on behalf of their own interests. The interpretation happens in the media which of course is also part of „the play“.

[u/inrego]

Yeah, as a Dane, I unfortunately know too well about this guy.. he used to be in Denmark, and got way too many votes during election. He's been in the news a lot, for provocative protests, including throwing/burning the Quran many times, mostly in areas with many muslims. He'll do anything for attention. He's an idiot with a head injury (for real). He should just be ignored instead of given all this attention. In Denmark we started to ignore him, and not putting him on the news whenever he did stupid shit. He was alone with a few friends at all of his protests. Suddenly he brings up that he's actually also a Swedish citizen, and he moves there to start stirring up shit

[u/green_flash → u/inrego]

Paludan is just a useful idiot. The guy behind the protest is Chang Frick, a far-right activist with connections to Russia.

Swedish media learned that while Paludan, who also holds Swedish citizenship, traveled to Stockholm specifically for the protest, his application fee for the demonstration permit was paid by Frick. Paludan confirmed to the media that the idea to burn the Quran was proposed to him by Frick. He also guaranteed that any damage that Paludan could sustain as a result of this protest will be covered.

It was also conveniently timed to take place immediately before a visit of the Swedish defense minister to Turkey which was expectedly cancelled as a result of the Quran burning protest going ahead.

[u/ThatDerp1 → u/green_flash]

Why the fuck did paludan confirm th- right, moron.

[u/SendMeNudesThough → u/ThatDerp1]

And then when this all came out and Paludan realized his mistake because now the media is tying this all to Russia, Paludan went out and said he'd burn a Quran every Friday until Sweden is let into NATO. Sort of as if to say "See, it totally wasn't a Russia-backed operation to sabotage Sweden's NATO chances, I'm burning Qurans IN SUPPORT of Sweden!"

Paludan's just... An all-around idiot.

[u/torridesttube69 → u/inrego]

He got less than 2% of the votes?

[u/inrego → u/torridesttube69]

63.537 votes. Which is about 63.536 too many. Enough that he received a lot of money from our government.

Compared to Sweden where he got 156 votes.

[u/5tormwolf92 → u/inrego]

Compared in Sweden he got 156 nationally and the Socialist lost some seat in local government to alternatives.

While he did get riots as he wished, in the end he lost steam as he should have. But when he saw Erdogan getting threatened by hanging he saw a possible PR stunt. Now no riot as it was next to the US embassy.

[u/torridesttube69 → u/inrego]

Yeah, okay.

My point was just that saying "he got way too many votes" comes across as if he was at least somewhat popular. But on the basis that any vote for him is too many, your comment makes sense.

[u/Huntersblood → u/torridesttube69]

Tbf 2% for such an extreme right and fringe candidate is a lot.

[u/TheSoundOfTheLloris]

Sorry, but who gives a fuck?

This guy has been burning the Quran for years and Turkey was never going to let Sweden join regardless. This is entirely about Turkey being utter tools and not respecting freedom of speech, with or without Russian funding

[u/paddy_boomsticks → u/TheSoundOfTheLloris]

It's about erdogan trying to gin up support in the elections.

[u/Yorgonemarsonb → u/paddy_boomsticks]

Think he’s trying to leverage that and more help with “terrorists” and whatever else he thinks he can get.

[u/Stolpskotta → u/TheSoundOfTheLloris]

He (the guy who burned the quran) is basically seen as a village idiot in both Sweden and Denmark.

We already know that he was asked to burn it outside of Turkeys embassy by an influencer who is working for the right wing political party “Swedish Demoracts” also known as SD. The influencer even paid the demonstration permit for him.

And you guessed it, SD have for a long time had rumors surrounding them of being influenced by Russia. Something they fully deny, but it just keeps popping up knew inconvenient links to the east for them.

[u/sarabjorks → u/Stolpskotta]

He stopped doing his bullshit in Denmark because people didn't take him seriously anymore. Coming to Skåne last year was just for finding new immigrants to rile up and make them look violent because the Swedes knew less about him

[u/Stolpskotta → u/sarabjorks]

Yeah, and when people stopped caring in Sweden he just stopped altogether since the point he wanted to prove wasn’t proven anymore.

This time it didn’t even seem like it was his idea to burn the book, he was just someone elses useful idiot.

[u/Fluffiebunnie → u/Stolpskotta]

And you guessed it, SD have for a long time had rumors surrounding them of being influenced by Russia. Something they fully deny, but it just keeps popping up knew inconvenient links to the east for them.

The SD leadership has been fully supporting Ukraine aid and condemning Russia since the February 2022 invasion. So whatever sympathies there were, seem to have flown out of the window at that stage.

[u/DeficiencyOfGravitas → u/Stolpskotta]

He (the guy who burned the quran) is basically seen as a village idiot in both Sweden and Denmark.

So? Even a village idiot is allowed to burn books without being attacked. Everyone is giving pass to the assault and trying a way to blame the victim.

[u/Fortifical]

I don't think that's the case. Burning the Quran is what he does, and he got permission from the police to do it. The journalist who paid the minimal fee, the case for him being a russian asset hasn't been presented imo.

[u/TheBunkerKing → u/Fortifical]

Not to say I don't agree this kind of stupid stuff is definitely playing into the hands of Putin, but as a general rule it's not police's job to stop burning books.

At least here in Finland, and even more so in Sweden, you're allowed to be disrespectful towards people's beliefs, even when it means you're behaving like an idiot. But bad behaviour or being an annoying cunt doesn't need to be illegal.

[u/vooffle → u/[deleted]]

While I agree, this is about the motive and not the act. Protesting and shooting down defence policy are very different things, even if done in the same act.

[u/green_flash → u/[deleted]]

He's also strongly opposed to Sweden's NATO membership and he knew this was the easiest way to prevent it.

[u/OldMcFart → u/green_flash]

If one single idiot burning a book can stop the entire NATO from letting new members in, then the problem isn't the book burning.

[u/vooffle → u/[deleted]]

These aren't mutually exclusive.

[u/green_flash → u/[deleted]]

The fee for registering the protest was paid by a former RT presenter with known links to Russia. Paludan may have done a similar protest some years ago, but it's very obvious that this time the goal was to thwart Sweden's NATO bid which he's opposed to and which conveniently is also what Russia is opposed to.

[u/Tuss → u/green_flash]

Paludan did a Sweden quran tour as late as this summer. I think it was 10+ or so towns and cities.

[u/Professional-Error-3 → u/green_flash]

The fee is 30 dollars and was paid because Paludan doesn't have a Swedish account and the transaction wouldn't have gone through in time. The "Former RT presenter" did freelance work for RT and Ruptly many years ago - is obviously a right leaning guy - but has lately been outspoken against Russia.

Looking at the situation and concluding that it was likely a Russian act is so dumb.

[u/green_flash → u/Professional-Error-3]

It goes further than that:

Paludan confirmed to the media that the idea to burn the Quran was proposed to him by Frick. He also guaranteed that any damage that Paludan could sustain as a result of this protest will be covered.

[u/iamtheshade → u/[deleted]]

What have the Koreans done to him? Were his neighbors blasting kpop at night? Was he force fed kimchi? Did his Samsung phone not get updated after Android 13 was released? I've got so many questions...

[u/evkr__]

This is a conspiracy theory.

The Dane/Swede has been doing this for 10 years.

[u/Falsus → u/evkr__]

Russia has supported extreme right activists for a lot longer than that. And the person who planned the quran burning outside of the Turkish embassy has ties to Russia.

[u/ramiabouzahra → u/Falsus]

Frick? The closest ties he has to Russia is his Russian wife

[u/Norwedditor → u/ramiabouzahra]

I mean he has done some, arguably excellent, reporting from inside the actual election process in Russia and covered a member of SD going there on election observer work. It's surprising work and a surprising exposé all around. I wonder how it was actually made possible because I don't think we will ever see something like it. It doesn't imply anything nefarious though but it is obvious someone must have said "OK". Whatever Frick knows it or not.

[u/BurlyJohnBrown → u/Falsus]

Is Russia in the room with us right now?

[u/popeyepaul → u/evkr__]

We are frankly giving Russia too much credit if we think that behind every unfortunate event is the evil mastermind Putin pulling the strings. If anything we are seeing that they are woefully inept especially considering the budgets they are operating with and Putin is a secluded paranoid old man too busy looking over his own shoulder to be concerned about anything that is happening outside of his tiny circle. The American elections for example haven't worked in their favor recently when they really would have needed it.

Russia does not have motive to do this because it doesn't benefit them in any way because 1) Turkey wasn't going to let them in anyway, and 2) Erdogan knows about free speech laws in the West, he just pretends not to when it suits him. This is him 100% choosing to be offended when he could have just as easily ignored the whole thing. There does not exist any reality where any Western country starts arresting protesters on behalf of a far away dictator, and Erdogan knows that too.

[u/LameBasist → u/evkr__]

Russia supporting alt-right in europe is not a conspiracy theory but a fact.

[u/throwawayski2 → u/LameBasist]

I do not think you did so with any bad intention, but can we please not start calling far-right 'alt-right' in Europe? It is a self-chosen name by American nationalists to sound more moderate and thus appealing.

We don't have to do the additional effort and legitimize these loons even more by using the same term in Europe.

[u/PartiZAn18 → u/LameBasist]

A sparrow does not Spring make.

[u/GenericBritishChap]

So let me get this straight, there’s people in this thread (and evidently the foreign minister of an apparently smart, modern nation) who believe that Russia “funded” this because some reporter paid the 30 dollar protest application fee?

Are people this stupid, or has propaganda really rotted people’s brains this badly?

[u/BadYabu → u/GenericBritishChap]

Swedish media learned that while Paludan, who also holds Swedish citizenship, traveled to Stockholm specifically for the protest, his application fee for the demonstration permit was paid by Frick. Paludan confirmed to the media that the idea to burn the Quran was proposed to him by Frick. He also guaranteed that any damage that Paludan could sustain as a result of this protest will be covered. source

[u/NervousJ → u/GenericBritishChap]

It's the result of decades of biased mass media. You can say pretty much whatever you want and have it published if you're picking an acceptable target as defined by the media cathedral. What we see here is an expansion of fear mongering nonsense articles we used to see daily about Trump. Same game, different stooge.

[u/[deleted] → u/GenericBritishChap]

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[u/Bakanyanter]

Conspiracy theory alert. Not everything has to do with Russia.

[u/cadaada → u/Bakanyanter]

russia somehow cant even keep its military organized, but can terrorize the entire fucking world not only in the internet but in real life too. Impressive really.

[u/DasKleineFerkell]

Know what else is unforgivable? Erdogans childish behavior.

[u/liamjphillips]

Burning someone's magic book shouldn't really be this important in 2023.

[u/jab136]

Burning a symbol is a legitimate use of free speech. I don't always agree with your stated or actual reasons for doing it, but I will support your ability to do it.

[u/Jdobalina]

Russia is awful for invading Ukraine, but you can’t blame literally every problem with your country on them. I mean, I would also love for them to find out who bombed the Nord Stream pipeline, but they don’t seem interested in exploring that.

[u/smokedspirit]

If that guy is and they have proof he was acting on behalf of Russia then arrest him. Charge him with being a foreign agent

Otherwise this is just speculation

[u/rgpc64]

Dirty deeds are part of the playbook and get worse when they are winning. There is no choice other than a united front against Russias aggression.

[u/MainCareless]

Oh yes, Russia does this kind of shit all the time. They study cultures and then try to start shit between people to create “incidents” that serve their motives. They tried to start a civil war in the US. We should all team up and just tear Russia to pieces as a world. They think that we won’t. They need an attitude adjustment!

[u/Ankhsou]

Nowaday if u have any problem i ur country its the russian fault. Thats pretty easy

[u/plu7o89]

Burn more imo, throw some bibles in there too.

Modern countries facilitate free speech and political action. This is all nonsense

[u/akbermo → u/plu7o89]

But why is the Swastika banned in Germany? Why is burning the French flag banned in France? Are they not modern countries?

[u/ChiKing → u/plu7o89]

Don't forget to throw in some Torahs while you're at it!

[u/HouseOfSteak → u/plu7o89]

The book burner hates freedom of expression and his party would see religions he doesn't like banned.

He's not in your corner, don't talk yourself into thinking that.

[u/[deleted] → u/plu7o89]

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[u/CrudelyAnimated]

Hints? May have been? Wasn't this confirmed and published in worldwide news like two days ago?

[u/Eyadish → u/CrudelyAnimated]

In no way confirmed, far from that. But events, relations and stuff does add up